Pair #6118

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38398

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maverick McNealy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3473

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:31Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee finishing top 5 overall (could collapse in R3/R4). Finishing top 5 overall does not require leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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