Pair #6114

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1737

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38398

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:31Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not require being top 10 after Round 1 (could have been outside top 10 in R1 and shot a great R2). Being top 10 after R1 does not require leading after R2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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