Pair #6108

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-CYOU

Masters Tournament: Will Cameron Young finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 181302

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1500
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CYOU

Masters Tournament: Will Cameron Young finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 138884

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:10Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Masters necessarily means finishing top 10 as well (top 5 is a subset of top 10). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not require being top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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