Pair #6106

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-CYOU

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 65874

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-CYOU

Masters Tournament: Will Cameron Young finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 138884

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.0700
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:10Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 does not imply finishing top 10 at the Masters specifically — Young could win a different major (PGA Championship, US Open, The Open). And finishing top 10 at the Masters does not imply winning any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -64.66% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -68.94% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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