Pair #61

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR16VUKHAR-HAR

Will Billy Harris win the Vukic vs Harris : Qualification Round 1 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Billy Harris
Expiration: 2026-03-16T18:00:00Z
Volume: 324626

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Harris wins the Vukic vs Harris professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Qualification Round 1 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXATPSETWINNER-26MAR16VUKHAR-2-HAR

Will Billy Harris win set 2 in the Aleksandar Vukic vs Billy Harris match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Billy Harris
Expiration: 2026-03-16T18:00:00Z
Volume: 770

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Billy Harris wins set 2 in the Aleksandar Vukic vs Billy Harris professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Qualification Round 1, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-17T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Harris could win the match without winning set 2 (e.g., winning sets 1 and 3, or winning sets 1 and 2 but set 2 winner market could resolve differently). More directly, Harris could win 2-0 by winning sets 1 and 2, but he could also win 2-1 by winning sets 1 and 3 while losing set 2. Neither direction is logically necessary.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:18:00Z

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