Pair #6099

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 168834

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-LABE

Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3050

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:03:10Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not imply being top 10 after Round 1 — a player could have a poor Round 1 and a great Round 2 to lead on aggregate, but still not have been top 10 after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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