Pair #6094

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 168834

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3387250

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:02:48Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open does not require leading after R2 (a player could win from behind). Leading after R2 does not guarantee winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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