Pair #6093

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 22176

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 168834

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:02:48Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and leading after R2 in the Valero Texas Open (a non-major) are independent events. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 7.69% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9600
Days to maturity: 201
Hurdle yield: 4.31%
Excess yield: +3.38% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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