Pair #6090

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 328470

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27229

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:02:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after R2 does not guarantee a top-5 finish (could fade over R3/R4). Finishing top 5 does not require leading after R2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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