Pair #6088

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 95015

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 328470

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:02:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after R2 does not require leading after R1 (a player could be behind after R1 and surge in R2). Leading after R1 does not guarantee leading after R2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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