Pair #6087

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 239

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 328470

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:02:48Z

Reasoning: Leading after R2 (cumulative 36-hole score) does not require a top-10 R1 score — a player could shoot a poor R1 and a great R2. And a top-10 R1 does not imply leading after R2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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