Pair #6079

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 68082

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8278

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:02:29Z

Reasoning: If Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 2, he is by definition among the players who made the cut (or will make the cut, as the cut is made after Round 2). The leader cannot miss the cut. However, making the cut does not imply leading after Round 2.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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