Pair #6076

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4154

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 68082

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:02:29Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 (cumulative score) does not require being top 10 after Round 1 alone — a player could shoot a poor Round 1 and a great Round 2. And being top 10 after Round 1 does not guarantee leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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