Pair #6064

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 68082

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 58557

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:02:08Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 2, and leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 20 finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.6200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue