Pair #6061

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 57603

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2262189

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open has no logical connection to finishing top 20 at the Masters. These are entirely separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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