Pair #6057

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-TFLE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 5236

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 57603

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: If Fleetwood finishes top 10 in all 4 majors, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which means he also finishes top 20 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -99.30% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: 39
Hurdle yield: 4.18%
Excess yield: -103.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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