Pair #6053

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-XSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17202

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-XSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 214153

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: Winning a major does not necessarily mean it was the Masters (could be PGA Championship, US Open, or The Open), so no implication toward Masters top 10. And finishing top 10 at the Masters does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -36.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -40.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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