Pair #6052

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-XSCH

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 15456

YES ask: 0.2600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-XSCH

Masters Tournament: Will Xander Schauffele finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Xander Schauffele
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 214153

YES ask: 0.3600
NO ask: 0.6700
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Xander Schauffele finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: If Schauffele finishes top 10 in ALL 4 majors, then he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters specifically. The reverse does not hold: a top 10 at the Masters alone does not guarantee top 10 at all four majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -72.64% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -76.85% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue