Pair #6050

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 237904

YES ask: 0.8400
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 115037

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:52Z

Reasoning: If McIlroy finishes top 5, he necessarily also finishes top 10. The reverse does not hold: a top 10 finish could be positions 6-10, which would not be top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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