Pair #6049

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMCI

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 44389

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-RMCI

Masters Tournament: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 115037

YES ask: 0.9700
NO ask: 0.0500
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:34Z

Reasoning: McIlroy could win a different major without finishing top 10 at the Masters, and finishing top 10 at the Masters does not mean he wins any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -52.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -57.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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