Pair #6044

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-BKOE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 17487

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Brooks Koepka wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-BKOE

Masters Tournament: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 135268

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:34Z

Reasoning: Koepka could win a different major (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open) without finishing top 20 at the Masters. And finishing top 20 at the Masters does not mean he wins any major. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -54.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -59.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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