Pair #6040

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 916

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4679

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:34Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish in Round 1 does not logically guarantee making the cut (a player could perform poorly in Round 2), and making the cut does not require a top 5 in Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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