Pair #6039

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 544162

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4679

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:34Z

Reasoning: If Finau leads after Round 1, he is by definition in 1st place, which is within the top 5. So leading Round 1 necessarily implies a top 5 finish in Round 1. The reverse does not hold: top 5 in Round 1 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue