Pair #6038

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1140

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12734

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.4200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:34Z

Reasoning: Event A is about Round 1 top 10 finish; Event B is about the overall tournament top 5 finish. Neither implies the other: a top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 5 overall, and a top 5 overall finish does not require a top 10 in Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue