Pair #6033

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 104298

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 916

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: If Tony Finau is the leader after Round 2, he has completed two rounds and is at the top of the leaderboard, which means he has definitively made the cut. The cut is made after Round 2, so leading after Round 2 logically necessitates making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue