Pair #6032

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4679

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 104298

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: A player can lead after Round 2 without having finished top 5 in Round 1 (e.g., a great Round 2 compensates for a mediocre Round 1). And top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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