Pair #6031

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 544162

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 104298

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not require leading after Round 1 (a player can move into the lead in Round 2), and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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