Pair #6030

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1140

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 104298

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (a player could shoot a very low Round 2 after a mediocre Round 1 and still lead after 36 holes). And top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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