Pair #6029

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4679

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22005

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: Top 10 overall finish does not require top 5 in Round 1, and top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 overall finish. These are independent in terms of logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue