Pair #6028

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1140

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 22005

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:01:13Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 (could start poorly and improve), and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 tournament finish. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue