Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFIN
Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1140
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFIN
Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 18644
YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.8100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tony Finau finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:00:48Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 20 overall in the Valero Texas Open does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1, and a top 10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 20 finish. These are independent outcomes.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$0.8400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A