Pair #6022

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1140

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1716955

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:00:48Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open does not logically necessitate finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically — a player can win a tournament after a poor first round (making the cut from outside top 10 R1). And a top 10 R1 finish does not imply winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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