Pair #6015

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4586

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VATO26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 104298

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:00:48Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA major in 2026 and leading after Round 2 of the Valero Texas Open are independent events. The Valero Texas Open is not a major, and leading R2 of a non-major does not imply a major win or vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 0.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -4.28% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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