Pair #6013

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFIN

Valero Texas Open: Will Tony Finau finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1140

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1385475

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters Tournament is entirely independent of finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open. These are separate tournaments with no logical dependency.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0110
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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