Pair #6009

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-MKEY

Will Madison Keys win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1372

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.1600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Madison Keys wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR03KEYBEN-KEY

Will Madison Keys win the Keys vs Bencic : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Madison Keys
Expiration: 2026-04-03T18:00:00Z
Volume: 1861

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5400
Last: 0.4600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Madison Keys wins the Keys vs Bencic professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 has no logical connection to winning a WTA Charleston quarterfinal match. These are independent events in separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -47.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4600
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -52.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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