Pair #6007

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-JPEG

Will Jessica Pegula win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3587

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAMATCH-26APR03PEGSHN-PEG

Will Jessica Pegula win the Pegula vs Shnaider : Quarterfinal match?

Series: KXWTAMATCH
Entity: Jessica Pegula
Expiration: 2026-04-03T18:00:00Z
Volume: 18182

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jessica Pegula wins the Pegula vs Shnaider professional tennis match in the 2026 WTA Charleston Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: Winning a Grand Slam in 2026 is entirely independent of winning a WTA Charleston quarterfinal match. Charleston is not a Grand Slam, and winning a Grand Slam does not require winning Charleston.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -59.72% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.7000
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -64.00% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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