Pair #6005

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-WSIM

Will Webb Simpson lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3013

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-WSIM

Valero Texas Open: Will Webb Simpson finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Webb Simpson
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 578

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Webb Simpson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-03T08:00:31Z

Reasoning: If Webb Simpson leads after Round 1, he is by definition in the top 10 (including ties) after Round 1. However, finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not imply he is the outright or tied leader — others could be ahead of him.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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