Antecedent (if this happens)
KXATPMATCH-26APR02BAEDRO-BAE
Will Sebastian Baez win the Baez vs Droguet : Round Of 16 match?
Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Sebastian Baez
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 270891
YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sebastian Baez wins the Baez vs Droguet professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02BAEDRO-1-BAE
Will Sebastian Baez win set 1 in the Sebastian Baez vs Titouan Droguet match
Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Sebastian Baez
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 13710
YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.8000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Sebastian Baez wins set 1 in the Sebastian Baez vs Titouan Droguet professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:19:10Z
Reasoning: Winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match (opponent can win the next sets). Winning the match does not require winning set 1 (Baez could lose set 1 and win sets 2 and 3). No logical implication in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0400
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A