Pair #6001

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXATPMATCH-26APR02BAEDRO-BAE

Will Sebastian Baez win the Baez vs Droguet : Round Of 16 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Sebastian Baez
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 270891

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sebastian Baez wins the Baez vs Droguet professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXATPSETWINNER-26APR02BAEDRO-1-BAE

Will Sebastian Baez win set 1 in the Sebastian Baez vs Titouan Droguet match

Series: KXATPSETWINNER
Entity: Sebastian Baez
Expiration: 2026-04-02T11:00:00Z
Volume: 13710

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sebastian Baez wins set 1 in the Sebastian Baez vs Titouan Droguet professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Bucharest Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:19:10Z

Reasoning: Winning set 1 does not guarantee winning the match (opponent can win the next sets). Winning the match does not require winning set 1 (Baez could lose set 1 and win sets 2 and 3). No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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