Pair #6

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXFOWOMEN-26-SAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the French Open?

Series: KXFOWOMEN
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 620408

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5700

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Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins the 2026 Women's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXWTAGRANDSLAM-26-ASAB

Will Aryna Sabalenka win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXWTAGRANDSLAM
Entity: Aryna Sabalenka
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 13063

YES ask: 0.5200
NO ask: 0.5300
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aryna Sabalenka wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:50:30Z

Reasoning: If Sabalenka wins the French Open, she has won a Grand Slam. The reverse does not hold — she could win a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:07:36Z

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