Pair #5999

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-CYOU

Valero Texas Open: Will Carson Young make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Carson Young
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 353

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carson Young has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-CYOU

Will Carson Young lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Carson Young
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5647

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Carson Young is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:19:10Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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