Pair #5943

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-SRYD

Will Sam Ryder win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 363569

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 470

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:17:51Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means finishing 1st, which is necessarily within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 does not mean winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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