Pair #5942

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 470

YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SRYD

Valero Texas Open: Will Sam Ryder finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sam Ryder
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5541

YES ask: 0.4700
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Ryder finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:17:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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