Pair #594

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 820

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MKIM

Will Michael Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 10378

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:04:09Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — the player still must complete Round 2 and meet the cut line. Making the cut does not imply leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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