Pair #5938

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-JDAH

Valero Texas Open: Will Joel Dahmen make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1629

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-JDAH

Valero Texas Open: Will Joel Dahmen finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Joel Dahmen
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 314

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Joel Dahmen finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:17:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (the cut is determined after Round 2). And making the cut does not require finishing top 5 in Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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