Pair #5920

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RPAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Ryan Palmer make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Ryan Palmer
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1460

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Palmer has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-RPAL

Will Ryan Palmer lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Palmer
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11922

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Palmer is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:17:32Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut — a player can lead R1 but miss the cut after R2. And making the cut does not require leading R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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