Pair #590

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Kim finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11518

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3464

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:04:09Z

Reasoning: Top 10 implies top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). But top 20 does not imply top 10 — a player could finish 11th-20th.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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