Pair #59

Antecedent (implies)

KXATPMATCH-26MAR17MARFON-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the Marozsan vs Fonseca : Round Of 128 match?

Series: KXATPMATCH
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-03-17T18:00:00Z
Volume: 7462

YES ask: 0.6900
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joao Fonseca wins the Marozsan vs Fonseca professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Miami Round Of 128 after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (implied)

KXFOMEN-26-FON

Will Joao Fonseca win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Joao Fonseca
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 2898

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joao Fonseca wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-17T08:00:29Z

Reasoning: Winning a Round of 128 match at the Miami Open has no logical connection to winning the French Open. These are separate tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Decision: rejected
Reviewed at: 2026-03-17T10:17:51Z

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