Pair #589

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Kim finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3464

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MKIM

Valspar Championship: Will Michael Kim make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Michael Kim
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 820

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.3400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Michael Kim makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:04:09Z

Reasoning: To finish top 20 in a PGA Tour event, a player must make the cut. You cannot finish in the top 20 after 72 holes without having survived the cut after round 2. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue