Pair #5885

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MWAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Matt Wallace finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1077

YES ask: 0.6100
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.6100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MWAL

Valero Texas Open: Will Matt Wallace finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Wallace
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6608

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.1900
Last: 0.8600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Wallace finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:16:38Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.8200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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