Pair #5880

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-KVIL

Valero Texas Open: Will Karl Vilips make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 534

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-KVIL

Will Karl Vilips lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Karl Vilips
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 148807

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Karl Vilips is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:16:21Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could play poorly in Round 2 and miss the cut). Making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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